1998+ Brazil Oil Drought

In early June, 2001, the government of Brazil ordered all electricity users to cut usage by 20% and all businesses to close on Mondays. At that point in the history of humanity, no country better showed the immediate future better than Brazil. The distant future will envy the immediate future as increasing numbers of people are faced with thirst, starvation and death. A global civil war is smoldering. No country shows the timistic losses better than Brazil, for Brazil's electricity (90%) comes primarily from hydroelectric sources which the flaring of unused gas dessicates. Like Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and China, Brazil flares more gas than it uses.

The below maps of drought area and offshore oil rigs show the common oil field/downwind droughts. The top of the drought area is at near the equator, on South America's Booty, where the winds go east to west, that is right to left on the maps.

Brazil's Drought Area Outlined in Red	Brazil Oil Fields, Off shore black dots on right
Enlargement	Oil platforms are black dots
Global Wind Pattern	Brazilian Wind pattern, enlargement

For actual satellite images of wind and cloud movement over hours or days
click Prevailing Winds.

Note the latitude where the winds reverse direction at the lower provinces of Brazil, from on-shore up north to offshore by Rio de Janerio. This is the same lattitude as the Gulf of Mexico where the winds reverse .

Description of Drought: See above Maps

• Drought Ravishes Northeast Brazil
  • The last drop of rain fell on the rural community of Juarzerinho, in Brazil's northeast state of Paraíba on November 16, 1997.
  • In the midst of what is perhaps the worst drought of the century, 9.5 million people are on the verge of starvation in Brazil's northeast, a semi-arid region of nine states and 45 million inhabitants. [20% of the population.]
• Northeast without lights and water
• Energy Crisis Brings Lifestyle Changes
  • With one of the most extensive river networks in the world, Brazil, which is larger than the continental United States, obtains more than 90 percent of its electricity from dams.
  • But as the harsh reality of the situation sinks in, the initial shock and anger are giving way to a grim realization that nearly every aspect of life will be curtailed.
• "Drought Causing Severe Food Shortages in Central America"  2001-07-29 WashPost 
• 051011 "Brazil declares disaster areas in Amazon ... Worst drought in decades drying key rivers"

Upwind Oil Field Development

• The best thing that could happen for Brazil would be for all of its oil rigs to imitate the world's largest oil platform which sank March 20, 2001. The reason given for the sinking is quite general and, simply, suspect--date
• The above maps show the standard oil-drought relationship: Oil fields yield downwind droughts. Because Brazil is so large and straddles both the equatorial Easterly Trade Winds (the equator runs near the mouth of Amazon River) and the Westerlies, one can see how as the wind patterns shift offshore in southern Brazil (Westeries), there is no drought from offshore oil wells.
• Brazil is the largest emitter of carbon dioxide in the region, DOE Report. It's oil production has increased from 200,000 barrels to 1.4 million from 1980 to 1999.
• With its expanding offshore oil wells, Brazil is creating an Ipanema economic reductio absurdum self-parafuso. The oil field flaring is drying up the rivers from which Brazil receives 90% of its electricity.
• An interesting thing but politically understandable thing is how one cannot find any reference to actual flaring rates of Brazils oil rigs. Indirectly, it looks like 90% which puts it into the league of Nigeria.

Terminating Factor: None in Sight with the Following only making the drought worse.

• Brazil is expanding offshore drilling: "Petrobas will step up its activities in the region .... a drilling offshore platform will be setup to work exclusively at this location."
• "Petrobras's sole position came to an end in July 1998 when ANP announced that more than 92% of the nation's sedimentary basins were to be put up for bidding to other oil companies." DOE report
• Energy Rationing Will Not Scare off Oil Investors: "The energy rationing will not scare off investors interested in participating in the third round of bidding for petroleum and gas exploration in Brazil scheduled for June 19th and 20th."
• "Build a dozen new gas-fired power stations by year end [2001]." Crippled Hydropower
• Brazil's habitual politicians make too much money off of Brazil's money dictators.
• The best thing that could happen for Brazil would be for all of its oil rigs to imitate the world's largest oil platform which sunk March 20, 2001. Since the cause has not been established, the question is open to whether this sinking was an act of the Eco Liberators.
• A seeming solution to the energy crises(#1) will make matters worse: importing Bolivian gas to generate electricity. How much electricity is generated by the release of one molecule of carbon dioxide? How much hydroelectric generation is lost by that one C02 molecule binding with 35 molecules of water to prevent precipitation? See Timistic Energy Analysis.
• A seeming solution to the energy crises(#2) using fossil fuel portable generators (Uniliver's 55 car-size diesel units at $300,000) will only make the CO2 local warming worse. In effect, Unilever and others are worsening the conditions for others by increasing CO2 emissions, e.g., like Shell oil company in Nigeria.

Causes and Costs:

• Drought in NE: "1% of the Brazilian population holds 47% of the arable land. Large tracts have historically been left idle for speculation. Though the 1988 Constitution guarantees land reform, large landowners have used their close ties to the political elite to block progress on its implementation."
• Politicians Make Environmental Mistakes Worse:
  • Brazil--DOE Report Y2000
    • Together with Paraguay, Brazil maintains the world's largest operational hydroelectric complex,
    • Brazil's privatization plans are dramatically altering the makeup of the energy sector.
    • To better accommodate the purchase of electricity both domestically and from its neighbors, Brazil currently is in the process of creating a wholesale energy market. Under such a system, generation, consumption and prices would follow free market conditions, allowing for quicker responses to the fluctuations of supply and demand. [Bullsh--, see next section]
  • Electricity Prices up 175%
    • Brazil, like California, privatized its generation of electricity
    • Brazil, like California, has the following problem: "this model becomes the path of little attractive generation of energy for the private investors."
• When the droughts set in, so did the desperation of the poor. Hungry people started raiding schools and grocery stores for food. .... Throughout the Northeast, 110 such raids were reported through the end of last May. (ibid)
• "Brazil's arid and impoverished northeastern region will likely be hit with blackouts in September as part of a power-rationing program that's been in effect since June." 2001-08-17 WSJ

Contributing Factors: Burning Rainforest The burning of the rain forest contributes to Brazil's problems in two ways. More CO2 is added to the immediate atmosphere and the removal of CO2 by the biomass is reduced as the forest disappears. The picture at the right taken from the space shuttles shows numerous slash and burn plumes. Everyone who slashes and burns thinks that their one little fire won't really matter. The politicians who should be stopping all the little fires are making money off of the burns, for the top 1% of Brazilians own half the land. The below Rondonia pictures show the disappearance of the Amazon.

For another view, 1975, 1985, 1992, click here

Rondonia, 1985	Rondonia, 1992

Slash and burn payback: The CO2 is not in two or three generations, but now. The CO2 from slash and burn soaks up the moisture preventing rainfall for hyroelectric and farming. Good going, Brazilian politicians and money dictators! Brazil has merely repeated the deforestation in the United States.

Document Index:

• 011026 "Oil Workers Paralyze Brazilian Oil Output At Start of Five-Day Strike for Higher Pay."